Scottsdale AZ Real Estate Agents - The Neal Team.

For a summary of recent history, see
Market Conditions Preface

The data for all of the following charts
were extracted directly from ARMLS.
The charts are fact subject only to data errors by listing agents.

Resale Homes Listing Inventory

Click here for a Larger Chart

The above chart illustrates the astounding drop in listings early-2004 through mid-year 2005. Just as spectacular is the listings explosion starting September 2005. There is also a sizable new-home inventory.

Buyers have an abundance of choices.

Similarly to the 2006 pattern, listings peaked late in the year and then declined, sharply in December, as typical with many listings set to expire at 12/31. As shown in the charts below, the number of new listings took a relatively sharp upturn in December, while cancellations continued at record levels. We expect the listings inventory to have an increasing pattern similar to last year, at least through March.

Through June, most of the listings were by owners who did NOT need to sell, so they held to their price until they got reasonably close to it, or cancelled the listing and took the property off-market.

The mix has finally shifted so that more are in a position of needing to sell, so a majority are now reducing the price to get that done.

The 12-month sum charts on the right below
give perspective to the monthly spaghetti.

Click any chart for a larger version.

	New Listings Left is monthly. Right is 12-month sum.
	Cancellations Left is monthly. Right is 12-month sum.
	Sales Left is monthly. Right is 12-month sum.

The monthly chart for sales just left-above illustrates, for every one of the eight years presented here, both a seasonal decline from May through year-end, as well as a significant drop from August to September. However, the 2007 decline was clearly extraordinary.

Resale Homes Median Price

Click here for a larger chart

Through August, resale-home prices held amazingly steady despite the massive increase in inventories and lower sales numbers. But the median price for homes sold through ARMLS over the last few months reflects the inevitable result of not only supply verses demand, but also a battered consumer psychology.

We have been predicting here that the next significant move in metro area home prices would be up. Unfortunately, it has taken too long for that move to make an appearance. Spring 2008 will be a very interesting time for the metro-Phoenix real estate market.